TTF Gas Price Surges 30 Percent
by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read the original article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas
In a market update sent to Rigzone late Wednesday, Rystad Energy Senior Analyst Zongqiang Luo highlighted that the price for front-month gas at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) surged by about 30 percent on August 9, “surpassing $12 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on news of potential LNG facility strikes in Australia”.
The potential strike would be led by Australian workers at Chevron and Woodside Energy Group, which may interrupt four LNG facilities, Luo noted in the update, adding that any such strike could disrupt about half of Australia’s LNG export capacity and cause many Asian buyers to look elsewhere for their cargoes.
“China and Japan purchased about 26 million tons of Australian LNG combined, more than 60 percent of the country’s exports in the first half of 2023,” Luo said in the update.
“This price surge reflects the likelihood of the strike materializing, impacting LNG supplies during the ongoing heatwaves, despite the ample gas inventories in Europe. On the other hand, there has been a rise in Asian LNG prices, leading to increased competition for marginal cargoes between regions,” Luo added.
“Looking ahead, we expect the bullish outlook for gas prices to continue with fewer LNG imports to Europe, planned maintenance for Norwegian pipelines, and continued heatwaves in multiple regions globally,” the Rystad analyst went on to state.
European storage facilities were 87 percent full as of August 6, Luo highlighted in the update, adding that “this trajectory of increasing storage positions Europe well to surpass the mandatory target of 90 percent full, which is set to take effect from 1 November, with months to spare”.
“Going forward, the prospect of European storage reaching capacity presents the possibility of increased utilization of Ukrainian storage facilities, which are now only 26 percent full,” Luo said in the update.
In a report sent to Rigzone on August 8, analysts at Standard Chartered noted that European and UK natural gas prices “continue to rise, despite the softening fundamentals of plentiful supply and weak demand”.
“Dutch Title Transfer Facility for September delivery rose by EUR 1.709 per megawatt hour (MWh) week on week to settle at EUR 30.487/MWh on August 7, a rise of 6.02 percent,” the analysts stated in the report.
Rystad Updates
In a separate market update sent to Rigzone on August 3, Rystad Energy Vice President Kaushal Ramesh said front-month TTF spot gas prices had declined by around two percent on the week to just over $9 per million British thermal units, “as high inventories continue to dampen bullish sentiment from ongoing heatwaves”.
“By contrast, higher Asian LNG prices have opened inter-regional competition for marginal cargoes,” Ramesh added.
“Our view for the upcoming week is slightly bullish due to unplanned maintenance, though upside price movements will be limited by the onset of the shoulder season and less than encouraging economic data out of Europe and China,” Ramesh continued.
In another market update sent to Rigzone on July 26, Rystad Energy Senior Analyst Masanori Odaka said gas prices on the TTF were up 20 percent week on week to around $10.7 per million British thermal units as of July 25, “due to heatwaves in Italy, Greece, and Spain”.
“However, further upside momentum has been dampened by continuously high underground gas storage levels in Europe,” Odaka said in that update.
“Europe is continuing to inject gas into storage, with storage levels for this time of the year well above 2021 and 2022 levels,” Odaka added.
“Storage facilities are currently 84 percent full at roughly 95 billion cubic meters as of July 24, well positioned to reach the 90 percent target before November,” the Rystad analyst went on to state.
by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read the original article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas