Oil Trader Andurand Sees Supply as Trigger for Price Slump

by Bloomberg | Grant Smith
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas

Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand says better-than-expected oil supplies have been the trigger for crude’s recent retreat.

“We have had a lot less supply disruptions than in an average year,” the renowned oil trader and founder of Andurand Capital Management said on social media platform X. “Iranian and US production have been higher than expected.”

Brent crude futures this week slumped below $80 a barrel for the first time in three months amid a darkening economic outlook, especially in key consumer China. Still, “mobility data shows an acceleration in demand and demand growth,” Andurand said, suggesting consumption isn’t the cause.

Part of the reason is a rebound in exports by the OPEC+ alliance from exceptionally low levels seen in August, he said. But because shipments typically rise in September in October, the increase doesn’t indicate that the group is failing to adhere to production quotas, he added.

At the same time that OPEC+ shipments were rising, China tapped its stockpiles, weakening the overall physical oil market, according to Andurand. That usually prompts buyers to hold back in expectation of even cheaper prices.

Also when futures prices go down so fast, physical buyers wait to try to get a better price, weakening further the crude physical differentials, and increasing the weakness sentiment, driving more selling of futures. So it is a snowball effect until everybody is short, and then…

— Pierre Andurand 🇺🇦🌻🇫🇷🇪🇺🇺🇸🇬🇧🇮🇱🇹🇼🇰🇷 (@AndurandPierre) November 9, 2023

For a “substantial structural rally” in oil, there needs to be sustained inventory draws similar to those seen in July and August of more than 1.5 million barrels a day, he said.

by Bloomberg | Grant Smith
click here to read the original article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas