EIA Reveals Latest Henry Hub Gas Price Forecasts for 2024 and 2025
by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Rosalind Oil & Gas
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest Henry Hub natural gas price forecasts for this year and next year in its October short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently.
According to the STEO, the EIA sees the Henry Hub spot price averaging $2.28 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2024 and $3.06 per MMBtu in 2025. In its previous STEO, which was released in September, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $2.19 per MMBtu this year and $3.14 per MMBtu next year.
The EIA’s October STEO placed the Henry Hub spot price average at $2.81 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2024, $3.16 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, $2.59 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2025, $3.13 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.35 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.
The organization’s September STEO put the Henry Hub spot price average at $2.52 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of this year, $3.01 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $2.90 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2025, $3.28 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.36 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of next year.
In its October STEO, the EIA placed the 2023 Henry Hub spot price average at $2.54 per MMBtu.
“Natural gas prices rose in September as natural gas production fell slightly from August,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.
“The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub price averaged $2.28 per MMBtu in September, 15 percent higher than the August average of $1.98 per MMBtu. The decline in production was partly due to an 11 percent drop in in Gulf of Mexico (GOM) natural gas production,” it added.
“About 53 percent of GOM production capacity was taken offline because of Hurricane Francine, which made landfall on the Louisiana coast on September 11,” it continued.
“GOM production capacity was unable to return to full capacity because Category 4 Hurricane Helene went through a nearby area two weeks later, extensively disrupting energy systems,” the EIA went on to state.
In its October STEO, the EIA noted that it expects prices to rise in 2025 as LNG exports increase while domestic consumption and production remain relatively flat.
“We forecast U.S. consumption of natural gas to average 89 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, which is about the same as our forecast for consumption in 2024,” it added.
“However, we expect that LNG exports will rise by nearly two billion cubic feet per day next year with continued strong international demand as export capacity expands,” it said.
In a statement posted on its site on September 10, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) revealed that it had activated its hurricane response team in response to Francine. In a statement posted on its site on September 24, the BSEE revealed that it had activated its hurricane response team in response to Helene.
A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell last Tuesday showed that the company was forecasting that the NYMEX basis Henry Hub U.S. natural gas price will average $2.70 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of this year, $3.20 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $3.50 per MMBtu in the second quarter and third quarter, and $2.80 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of next year.
A research note sent to Rigzone on September 30 by the JPM Commodities Research team showed that J.P. Morgan saw the U.S. natural gas Henry Hub price averaging $2.33 per MMBtu in 2024 and $3.70 per MMBtu in 2025.
That note revealed that the company saw the commodity averaging $2.75 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2024, $3.75 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, $3.30 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.75 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.00 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.
by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Rosalind Oil & Gas