USA EIA Update Shows Declining Price Trend for Gasoline

by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas

In its latest fuel update, which was released this week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a declining price trend for gasoline.

According to the update, the U.S. regular gasoline price averaged $3.069 per gallon on November 4, $3.052 per gallon on November 11, and $3.046 per gallon on November 18.

Of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions highlighted in the EIA’s latest fuel update, the West Coast was shown to have the highest regular gasoline price as of November 18, at $3.875 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was shown to have the lowest regular gasoline price as of November 18, at $2.629 per gallon.

A glossary section of the EIA site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into five districts, with PADD 1 further split into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and 7 encompass U.S. territories, the site adds.

According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. is $3.063 per gallon today. Yesterday’s average was $3.066 per gallon, the week ago average was $3.084 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.175 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.295 per gallon, the site showed.

GasBuddy’s live ticking average for regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.047 per gallon as of 10.55am EST on November 21. The figure was 0.7 cents lower than yesterday’s average, 2.6 cents lower than last week’s average, 10.2 cents lower than last month’s average, and 23.6 cents lower than last year’s average, the site highlighted.

Future Price Projections

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently, the EIA projected that the U.S. regular gasoline price will average $3.32 per gallon in 2024 and $3.17 per gallon in 2025.

In its previous October STEO, the EIA forecast that the regular gasoline price would average $3.33 per gallon this year and $3.22 per gallon in 2025. The EIA’s September STEO projected that the regular gasoline price would average $3.33 per gallon this year and $3.29 per gallon in 2025.

All three STEOs put the average 2023 regular gasoline price at $3.52 per gallon.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO showed that the EIA expects the regular gasoline price to average $3.11 per gallon across the fourth quarter of this year and first quarter of 2025, $3.28 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.26 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.03 per gallon in the fourth quarter.

In its previous STEO, the EIA forecast that the regular gasoline price would come in at $3.15 per gallon in the fourth quarter of this year, $3.11 per gallon in the first quarter of 2025, $3.33 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.35 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.07 per gallon in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s September STEO projected that the regular gasoline price would average $3.12 per gallon in the fourth quarter of this year, $3.11 per gallon in the first quarter of 2025, $3.39 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.43 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.21 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Gasoline Demand, Production

In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group earlier this month, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, flagged a “weakening gasoline demand forecast for 2025, in particular in the U.S. and European developed markets”.

“For the U.S., we now expect gasoline demand to decline by 0.5 percent year on year in 2025 after a… 0.6 percent year on year decline expected for 2024,” BMI added.

“This bearish view is underpinned by the expected economic slowdown with U.S. real GDP growth set to decelerate from 2.7 percent year on year in 2024 to 1.9 percent year on year in 2025,” it continued.

“We expect private consumption to slow while investment will remain sluggish before responding to easier monetary policy by mid-2025,” it went on to state.

Looking at supply, BMI noted in the report that it expects global gasoline output to grow by 1.0 percent, “further adding downward pressure on the crack spreads”.

“Aggregate global gasoline production is set to increase to 25.0 million barrels per day in 2025 from 24.8 million barrels per day in 2024,” BMI said in the report.

“China, India, the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Mexico are set to see the largest uptick in gasoline production,” it added.

by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas