EIA Predicts Record Annual USA Oil Output in 2026

by Andreas Exarheas | Rigzone Staff
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on August 11 and completed its forecast on August 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that annual U.S. oil production will hit a record this year.

According to the STEO, the EIA sees U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, averaging 13.80 million barrels per day in 2026. That’s the highest 2026 U.S. crude oil production forecast in any of the EIA’s eight monthly STEOs so far this year and would be the highest U.S. production figure ever for a single year.

An EIA data page displaying annual U.S. field production of crude oil from 1859 to 2025, which was last updated on July 31, showed that the highest U.S. crude oil production figure for a single year came in 2025, at 13.586 million barrels per day.

A data page on the EIA site displaying monthly U.S. field production of crude oil from January 1920 to May 2026 showed that monthly U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13.8 million barrels or more on four occasions. These came in August last year, at 13.810 million barrels per day, September 2025, at 13.828 million barrels per day, October 2025, at 13.864 million barrels per day, and April 2026, at 13.967 million barrels per day, the data page showed.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that annual U.S. oil production will hit a record this year.

Production Breakdown

The EIA’s August STEO projected that Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, will produce 11.36 million barrels per day of the overall projected level of 13.80 million barrels per day for the U.S. in 2026.

The Federal Gulf of America is expected to produce 1.98 million barrels per day and Alaska is expected to produce 0.45 million barrels per day, the STEO showed.

In 2025, Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, produced 11.27 million barrels per day of the 13.59 million barrel per day total, with the Federal Gulf of America producing 1.90 million barrels per day and Alaska producing 0.42 million barrels per day, the STEO highlighted.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that total U.S. crude oil output will average 13.81 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 13.97 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. This production came in at 13.58 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 13.82 million barrels per day in the second quarter.

Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, are projected to produce 11.41 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 11.49 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to the STEO, which showed that this area produced 11.14 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 11.41 million barrels per day in the second quarter.

The Federal Gulf of America is expected to produce 1.96 million barrels per day across the third and fourth quarters and Alaska is expected to produce 0.44 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 0.51 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year, the STEO showed.

In the first quarter, the former produced 2.01 million barrels per day and the latter produced 0.42 million barrels per day, and in the second quarter, the former produced 2.00 million barrels per day and the latter, again, produced 0.42 million barrels per day, the STEO highlighted.

Global Terms

The EIA’s August STEO outlined that the projected 2026 U.S. crude oil production figure of 13.80 million barrels per day would make up 18.4 percent of the projected 2026 global crude oil production figure of 74.89 million barrels per day.

Of this total global projected figure, OPEC+ is expected to contribute 28.99 million barrels per day and non-OPEC+, excluding the U.S., is expected to produce 32.11 million barrels per day.

Total U.S. crude oil production of 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025 made up 17.2 percent of global crude oil production of 78.89 million barrels per day last year, the EIA’s August STEO showed.

Of the global crude oil output figure of 78.89 million barrels per day in 2025, OPEC+ contributed 33.32 million barrels per day and non-OPEC+, excluding the U.S., produced 31.99 million barrels per day, the STEO highlighted.

by Andreas Exarheas | Rigzone Staff
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas