EIA Raises USA Oil Production Forecasts for 2026, 2027

by Andreas Exarheas | Rigzone Staff
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its U.S. crude oil production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 in its latest short term energy outlook.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its U.S. crude oil production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 in its latest short term energy outlook, which was released earlier this month.

According to its latest STEO, the EIA now sees U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, averaging 13.83 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.26 million barrels per day in 2027. In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, would come in at 13.80 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.15 million barrels per day in 2027.

The EIA’s September STEO showed that U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, averaged 13.66 million barrels per day in 2025. In its August STEO, the EIA highlighted that this production came in at 13.59 million barrels per day last year.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that U.S. crude oil output will average 13.88 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 14.02 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 14.12 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 14.27 million barrels per day in the second and third quarters of 2027, and 14.39 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production would average 13.81 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.97 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 14.06 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 14.22 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 14.15 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 14.18 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s latest STEO showed that this output averaged 13.84 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 13.58 million barrels per day in the first quarter. In its previous STEO, the EIA highlighted that this production came in at 13.82 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 13.58 million barrels per day in the first quarter.

Never Averaged 14MM Bpd

U.S. crude oil production has never averaged 14 million barrels per day or above annually, or even monthly, according to EIA figures. The country’s oil output has averaged 13 million barrels per day on two occasions annually, and on multiple occasions monthly, EIA figures highlighted.

A data page on the EIA site displaying annual U.S. field production of crude oil – which was last updated on August 31 and includes data from 1859 to 2025 – showed that the highest average annual U.S. field production of crude oil figure was seen in 2025, at 13.662 million barrels per day. Before this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had only averaged 13 million barrels per day in one other year – 2024, at 13.267 million barrels per day – the EIA data revealed.

A data page on the EIA website displaying monthly U.S. field production of crude oil – which was also last updated on August 31 and includes data from January 1920 to June 2026 – showed that the highest average monthly U.S. field production of crude oil figure was seen in October 2025, at 13.995 million barrels per day.

The second highest figure was seen in November 2025, at 13.927 million barrels per day, and the third highest figure came in September 2025, at 13.917 million barrels per day, according to the data page.

Monthly U.S. field output of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day on 36 occasions, the data page showed. Six of these were seen in 2026, 12 were seen in 2025, 11 came in 2024, five came in 2023, and two came in 2019, the data page highlighted.

Location Breakdown

In its September STEO, the EIA projected that Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, will contribute 11.38 million barrels per day to the total projected figure of 13.83 million barrels per day for U.S. crude oil production in 2026. 

The Federal Gulf of America is expected to contribute 2.00 million barrels per day and Alaska is expected to contribute 0.45 million barrels per day, the STEO showed.

Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, are expected to make up 11.87 million barrels per day of the total projected figure of 14.26 million barrels per day for 2027, the STEO highlighted. The Federal Gulf of America contributes 1.89 million barrels per day, and Alaska makes up 0.50 million barrels per day, the STEO projected.

The EIA’s September STEO showed that 2025’s total U.S. crude oil production average of 13.66 million barrels per day comprised 11.30 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, 1.94 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of America, and 0.42 million barrels per day from Alaska.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that Lower 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, will produce 11.43 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 11.53 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 11.63 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 11.82 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 11.96 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 12.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The Federal Gulf of America is projected to produce 2.01 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 1.98 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year and first quarter of next year, 1.95 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 1.83 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.81 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the STEO showed.

Alaska is expected to produce 0.44 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 0.51 million barrels per day across the fourth quarter of this year and the first two quarters of next year, 0.48 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 0.52 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the STEO highlighted.

by Andreas Exarheas | Rigzone Staff
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas