Execs Predict Future Henry Hub NatGas Prices

by Andreas Exarheas | Rigzone Staff
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas

Executives from oil and gas firms revealed where they expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to be at various points in the future in the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

Executives from oil and gas firms revealed where they expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to be at various points in the future in the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was published recently.

The survey asked participants what they expect Henry Hub natural gas prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. Executives from 98 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $3.29 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for the six month mark, $3.46 per MMBtu for the year mark, $3.82 per MMBtu for the two year mark, and $4.28 per MMBtu for the five year mark, the survey revealed.

Executives from 97 oil and gas firms answered this question in the second quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey and gave a mean response of $3.35 per MMBtu for the six month mark, $3.45 per MMBtu for the year mark, $3.75 per MMBtu for the two year mark, and $4.14 per MMBtu for the five year mark, that survey showed.

In the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, executives from 110 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $3.53 per MMBtu for the six month mark, $3.72 per MMBtu for the year mark, $4.03 per MMBtu for the two year mark, and $4.42 per MMBtu for the five year mark, that survey showed.

The third quarter latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked participants what they expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to be at the end of 2026.

Executives from 120 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave an average response of $3.29 per MMBtu. The low forecast was $2.20 per MMBtu, the high forecast was $8.00 per MMBtu, and the average daily spot price during the survey was $2.97 per MMBtu, the survey pointed out.

In the second quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, executives from 123 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave an average response of $3.36 per MMBtu, that survey highlighted. The low forecast was $2.00 per MMBtu, the high forecast was $4.65 per MMBtu, and the average daily spot price during the survey was $3.15 per MMBtu, the survey pointed out.

In the first quarter 2026 Dallas Fed Energy Survey, executives from 128 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave an average response of $3.60 per MMBtu, that survey highlighted. The low forecast was $2.30 per MMBtu, the high forecast was $5.25 per MMBtu, and the average daily spot price during that survey was $3.16 per MMBtu, the first quarter 2026 Dallas Fed Energy Survey revealed.

The fourth quarter 2025 Dallas Fed Energy Survey was the first Dallas Fed Energy Survey which asked participants what they expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to be at the end of 2026. Executives from 124 oil and gas firms answered this question in the fourth quarter 2025 survey and gave an average response of $4.19 per MMBtu, that survey highlighted. The low forecast was $1.75 per MMBtu, the high forecast was $6.50 per MMBtu, and the average daily spot price during that survey was $4.84 per MMBtu, the fourth quarter 2025 Dallas Fed Energy Survey pointed out.

In a comment section of the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey, one oil and gas support services firm warned that “natural gas prices might well spike should current Asian and European liquefied natural gas storage deficits not offset a cold winter”.

NatGas Probes Support Near $3 Mark

In a gas report sent to Rigzone by the EBW Analytics Group on Tuesday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, noted that the November natural gas contract “probed support” near the “$3.00 psychological mark at $2.997 yesterday”, before “closing narrowly above resistance at the 20-day moving average of $3.061 per MMBtu”.

“NYMEX natural gas continues to find support from production weakness and searing late-season Western heat,” Rubin said in the report.

“LNG nominations are up modestly this morning … Weather support may slip in the short-term as a northeast cool push and Western heat both fade into the weekend and tropical storm risks rise in the Gulf,” he added.

Rubin outlined in this report that EBW’s “high-level outlook” is for “near-term technical support near the $3.00 per MMBtu psychological mark, weak production, and a triple-digit year-over-year storage surplus”.

He warned, however, that “soft NYMEX winter gas contracts continue to suppress upside potential, and physical support may erode over the next 7-10 days”.

This report pointed out that the November natural gas contract closed at $3.066 per MMBtu on Monday. This was up 3.1 cents, or 1.0 percent, from Friday’s close, the report outlined.

Tuesday’s EBW report also projected that the NYMEX front month natural gas contract price trend will be to “find… [it’s] footing” over the next seven to 10 days and to be “structurally soft” over the next 30-45 days.

In a separate report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Monday, Rubin highlighted that the November natural gas contract found intraday support at $2.912 on Friday, “matching its low close from early August, before recovering above the $3.00 psychological level”.

“The 20-day moving average at $3.062 presents near-term resistance. Henry Hub spot prices dropped to just $2.91 per MMBtu over the weekend,” he added.

Rubin noted in this report that some meteorologists “erased double-digit gHDDs since Friday, while chances emerged for a tropical storm in the central-to-east Gulf Coast into the end of the week”.

“Still, extremely hot weather in the West (which raised SoCal Citygates to $4.65 per MMBtu) may be moderately supportive in the immediate-term, drawing Permian supplies westward,” he highlighted.

Rubin also pointed out that production readings are 2.5-3.0 billion cubic feet per day below mid-September peaks “with continuing Marcellus curtailments and Haynesville weakness”.

“However, despite near-term fundamental support and room for seasonal spreads to narrow further, winter contract weakness is continuing to constrain the NYMEX front-month,” he added.

This EBW report highlighted that the November natural gas contract closed at $3.035 per MMBtu on Friday. This marked a 6.8 cent, or 2.3 percent, rise from Thursday’s close, the report outlined.

by Andreas Exarheas | Rigzone Staff
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas