Global Gas Demand Will Rise Toward Middle of 2030s
by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read the original article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas
Global gas demand will rise toward the middle of the 2030s, Rystad Energy noted in a release sent to Rigzone recently.
The company added, however, that currently producing and underdeveloped gas fields are expected to peak production in the next couple of years before starting to decline.
“Even considering all the fields yet to be sanctioned and currently in the discovery lifecycle category, peak production is still far from realization under ideal scenarios,” Rystad said in the release.
“Our analysis of global warming scenarios suggests more gas exploration and production is required to meet 1.9 or 2.5 degrees of warming,” it added.
“In every scenario except the 1.6 degrees, additional gas resources are needed to meet demand. Therefore, gas exploration and additional capital investment within prominent gas basins or gas-rich countries are necessary,” the company continued.
In the release, Rystad stated that unconventional gas will continue to play a prominent role in the world’s supply mix, “estimated to increase to approximately a third by 2030”.
“This expected increase in unconventional production is primarily due to a decline in exploration success over the past decade and the lack of developed conventional gas projects, leading to a drop in the overall conventional gas supply,” Rystad said in the release.
The company highlighted in its release that 32 percent of conventional gas volumes discovered since 2010 are producing, adding that more than 50 percent are yet to be approved for development.
“As a result, countries that rely on conventional sources of gas will have to turn towards unconventional volumes to meet net-zero targets and satisfy global demand if they do not increase their investment in production,” Rystad stated in the release.
Unconventional Gas
The production of unconventional gas, such as shale, has experienced rapid growth in recent years due to technological advancements and reduced lead times, Rystad noted in its release, highlighting that the global share of unconventional gas supply in global gas production has risen from four percent in 2000 to 12 percent in 2022.
The influx of affordable gas from unconventional sources and ongoing supply from exporting countries like Russia has tempered exploration efforts for conventional gas, Rystad stated in the release, adding that this is evident in that nearly 70 percent of discovered conventional volumes have yet to receive sanctions for development.
Rystad also outlined in the release that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, which it stated has “traditionally been an oil and gas production powerhouse”, has seen a decline in large conventional discoveries, “spurring countries in the region to explore and develop more unconventional resources”.
“Saudi Arabia exemplifies this transition as the kingdom aims to eliminate oil from its power production and achieve an electricity generation split of 50 percent renewables and 50 percent natural gas by 2030,” Rystad said in the release.
“This shift toward a more diversified energy landscape is supported by the growing demand for gas within the country, forecast to reach 125 billion cubic meters annually by the decade’s end,” it added.
“To match burgeoning demand, Saudi Arabia will require new production from non-associated gas fields as well as unconventional gas plays, such as the Jafurah field – the most extensive liquids-rich shale gas play in the Middle East, with estimated lifetime investments exceeding $100 billion,” Rystad continued.
“Saudi Aramco, the driving force behind the Jafurah project, plans to achieve peak shale gas production of two billion cubic feet per day by 2030,” Rystad went on to note.
“Gas is increasingly considered a crucial stepping stone to a sustainable future,” Aatisha Mahajan, the Vice President Of Exploration at Rystad Energy, said in the release.
“With reduced emissions and regional energy security goals aligned, gas is poised to play a pivotal role in the global energy transition,” Mahajan added.
“The Middle East is a key driver of this shift, slowly moving into developing and increasing gas volumes as part of their new energy transition strategies,” the Rystad VP continued.
Gas Production, Demand
According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) first, and the overall 72nd, annual statistical review of world energy, which was released earlier this year, total natural gas production was 4,043.8 trillion cubic meters in 2022.
This figure marked a 0.2 percent year on year reduction, the review showed. From 2012 to 2022, this production has increased 2.0 percent year on year, the review outlined.
North America had the largest share of natural gas production last year, according to the review, which revealed that the region’s output came in at 1,203.9 trillion cubic meters. This figure represented a 4.2 percent year on year production increase for the region, which has seen output grow 3.5 percent annual from 2012 to 2022, the EI review highlighted.
The Middle East was the region with the third highest natural gas production figure in 2022, at 721.3 billion cubic meters, behind CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), with 805.9 billion cubic meters, the review showed. The Middle East’s production figure marked a 2.1 percent year on year increase, according to the review, which pointed out that the region’s output has grown 2.8 percent year on year from 2012 to 2022.
North America and the Middle East also ranked first and third, respectively, in terms of regional natural gas demand last year, the review revealed.
The former posted a natural gas consumption figure of 1,099.4 trillion cubic meters in 2022, which was up 4.7 percent year on year, and the latter posted a demand figure of 560.6 billion cubic meters, which was down 0.3 percent year on year, behind Asia Pacific, with 907.1 billion cubic meters, the review outlined.
North America’s natural gas consumption has grown 2.5 percent annually from 2012 to 2022, while the Middle East’s demand figure has grown 3.2 percent year on year from 2012 to 2022, the review highlighted.
Total natural gas demand came in at 3,941.3 trillion cubic meters last year, according to the review, which revealed that this was down 3.1 percent year on year. This demand has grown 1.7 percent annually from 2012 to 2022, according to the review.
by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read the original article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas