Oil Strategists Do Not Expect Mid East Tensions to Reduce Crude Supply

by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read the original article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone recently, Macquarie strategists said they do not expect current Mid East tensions to reduce crude supply, “even with large changes to normal shipping routes already underway”.

“According to our global intelligence and security colleagues Michael Bender and Mariya Dimova, no major actor wants the conflict to result in all-out war and most parties appear to be responding to instigation in a measured way that does not seek heavy escalation,” the strategists noted in the report.

“Sparring and skirmishes are likely to continue for the indefinite future. Maritime attacks by the Yemeni based militant group Ansar Allah, aka the Houthis, represent the largest source of logistical and overall supply risk to the market,” they added.

“The Houthis continue to target commercial vessels in response to the ongoing conflict in Gaza and Israel’s operations there. Methods of attacks include missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and vessel hijacking,” they continued.

In the report, the Macquarie strategists said initial announcements by Houthis stated their intention to target only Israel-linked vessels. Since then, non-Israel linked carriers have been targeted, the strategists highlighted, adding that, in response, the U.S. has led the formation of a maritime task force named Operation Prosperity Guardian.

“As of 17 January, the Houthis have launched 30+ attacks against international commercial vessels and dozens more against non-commercial and unspecified targets, with connections to approximately 55+ nations,” the strategists noted in the report.

“The largest escalation took place on 9 January when Houthi militants targeted U.S.-led coalition naval vessels with 20+ clustered munitions (drones and missiles), an act followed by retaliatory ‘tit for tat’ action that saw the coalition conduct joint strikes on 16 Houthi military targets (weapons depots, air defense systems, launching locations, etc.) on land for the first time,” they added.

Despite the recent escalation in the Red Sea, most attacks have included a single or small number of projectiles, have been highly calibrated, and caused minimal damage, the strategists stated in the report.

“Further, U.S.-led responses including intercepting projectiles/hijacking efforts, and surveillance have been equally calibrated,” they noted.

“The measured nature of Houthi tactics demonstrates a primary tactical goal of creating widespread concern for maritime shipping rather than inflicting significant damage to specific targets,” they added.

“However, intermittent escalatory spikes in ‘tit for tat’ actions are likely to persist and Houthi actions will continue to pose a threat to crude and especially refined product supply logistics, even if overall supply is largely unchanged,” the strategists continued.

Airbase Attack, Centcom Airstrikes

In a statement posted on its X page on January 20, U.S. Central Command (Centcom) said that, at approximately 6.30pm Baghdad time that day, “multiple ballistic missiles and rockets were launched by Iranian-backed militants in Western Iraq targeting al-Assad Airbase”.

“Most of the missiles were intercepted by the base’s air defense systems while others impacted on the base. Damage assessments are ongoing,” Centcom said in the statement.

“A number of U.S. personnel are undergoing evaluation for traumatic brain injuries. At least one Iraqi service member was wounded,” it added.

In a statement posted on its X page earlier on the same day, Centcom said its forces conducted airstrikes on January 20 “against a Houthi anti-ship missile that was aimed into the Gulf of Aden and was prepared to launch”.

The strikes came “as part of ongoing efforts to protect freedom of navigation and prevent attacks on maritime vessels”, Centcom outlined in the statement.

“U.S. forces determined the missile presented a threat to merchant vessels and U.S. Navy ships in the region, and subsequently struck and destroyed the missile in self-defense,” Centcom said in the statement.  

“This action will make international waters safer and more secure for U.S. Navy and merchant vessels,” it added.

In another post on its X page on January 19, Centcom revealed that, on that day at approximately 6.45pm Sanaa time, Centcom forces conducted strikes “against three Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed into the Southern Red Sea and were prepared to launch”.

“U.S. forces identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that they presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and the U.S. Navy ships in the region,” it added.

“U.S. forces subsequently struck and destroyed the missiles in self-defense. This action will make international waters safe and secure for U.S. navy vessels and merchant vessels,” Centcom continued.

by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read the original article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas