Strategists Forecast USA Crude Inventory Increase
by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read the original article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on October 30, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up 2.9 million barrels for the week ending October 27.
“This follows a 1.4 million barrel build for the week ending October 20, with the total U.S. crude balance realizing largely in-line with our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“Moving to this week, from refineries, we look for a modest increase in crude runs (+0.2 MBD). Among net imports, we look for a step-up this week, with exports lower on a nominal basis (-0.5 MBD) and imports moderately higher (+0.4 MBD),” they added.
“From implied domestic supply (prod. + adj.), we again look for a reduction (-0.5 MBD) following another nominally strong print last week. Rounding out the picture, we again anticipate no change in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory on the week,” they continued.
Also in the report, the Macquarie strategists noted that, at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline model is calling for a build of 0.1 million barrels this week.
“Among products, we look for a healthy draw in distillate (-3.0 million barrels), with gasoline stocks slightly higher (+0.3 million barrels), and a small draw in jet (-0.4 million barrels),” the strategists said.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.3 MBD compared to 14.7 MBD last week and a trailing four-week avg. of 14.2 MBD,” they added in the report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on October 25, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 1.4 million barrels from the week ending October 13 to the week ending October 20.
That report showed that U.S. crude oil stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 421.1 million barrels on October 20, 419.7 million barrels on October 13, and 439.9 million barrels on October 21, 2022.
Crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at 351.3 million barrels on October 20 and October 13, and at 401.7 million barrels on October 21, 2022, according to the EIA report, which revealed that total petroleum stocks in the U.S. – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.616 million barrels on October 20.
The October 20 petroleum stock figure was 0.5 million barrels less than the prior week, the EIA report highlighted. Compared to year ago levels, the October 20 petroleum stock figure was down 9.6 million barrels, according to the EIA report.
In a previous report sent to Rigzone on October 24, Macquarie strategists forecast that U.S. crude inventories would be up 1.1 million barrels for the week ending October 20.
“This follows a 4.5 million barrel draw for the week ending October 13, with the total U.S. crude balance realizing tighter than we anticipated alongside surprisingly strong crude runs,” the strategists said in that report.
“We again anticipate no change in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory on the week,” they added in the October 24 report.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is currently scheduled to be released on November 1. According to the EIA’s website, the organization’s weekly petroleum status report shows “the petroleum supply situation in the context of historical information and selected prices”.
The EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, the organization’s website notes.
by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read the original article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas