USA EIA Boosts Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecasts
by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on April 10.
According to its April STEO, the EIA now sees the Henry Hub spot price averaging $4.27 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.60 per MMBtu in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in March, the EIA saw the Henry Hub spot price averaging $4.19 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.47 per MMBtu in 2026.
The EIA projected in its April STEO that the Henry Hub spot price will come in at $3.93 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2025, $4.34 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $4.68 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $4.93 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $4.18 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $4.61 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.66 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.
The EIA highlighted in its latest STEO that the Henry Hub spot price averaged $4.15 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025 and $2.19 per MMBtu overall in 2024.
In its March STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $3.88 per MMBtu in the second quarter of this year, $4.30 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $4.49 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $4.66 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2026, $4.13 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $4.50 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.60 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of next year.
The EIA’s March STEO projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $4.11 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025. This STEO also highlighted that the commodity came in at $2.19 per MMBtu overall in 2024.
“A colder than normal January and February this winter heating season resulted in more natural gas than average being withdrawn from natural gas storage,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.
“We estimate more than 1,600 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas was withdrawn in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), or 21 percent more than the five-year (2019 – 2024) average,” it added.
“At the end of March, which marks the end of the U.S. natural gas storage withdrawal season (November – March), we estimate that U.S. working natural gas in underground storage totaled just over 1,800 Bcf, or four percent less than the five-year average,” it continued.
The EIA highlighted in the STEO that it expects higher natural gas prices this year compared with 2024, which it said “will encourage producers in the Appalachia and Haynesville regions to increase production”.
“Dry natural gas production averages about 105 Bcfpd in 2Q25 in our forecast, nearly three Bcfpd more than the same period in 2024,” the EIA noted in its April STEO.
“The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub price averages more than $3.90 per MMBtu in 2Q25 in our forecast, almost 90 percent higher compared with 2Q24. We expect the Henry Hub price to average about $4.30 per MMBtu in 2025 and nearly $4.60 per MMBtu in 2026,” it added.
“We expect natural gas injections into storage to be higher than average early in the natural gas injection season (April – October),” it continued.
The EIA went on to reveal, however, that it expects injections to fall below the five-year average “beginning in midsummer when natural gas use in the electric power sector picks up”.
“We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the injection season on October 31 with three percent less natural gas in storage than the five-year average, with about 3,660 Bcf in storage,” it added.
A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on April 12 showed that J.P. Morgan expected the average U.S. natural gas Henry Hub price to average $3.80 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.31 per MMBtu in 2026.
J.P. Morgan saw the commodity coming in at $3.90 per MMBtu in the second quarter of this year, $4.00 in the third quarter, $3.75 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $3.50 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $3.00 in the second quarter, $3.25 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.50 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, the report highlighted.
A BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on April 11 showed that BMI expected the front month natural gas Henry Hub price to average $3.40 per MMBtu this year and $3.80 per MMBtu next year.
A Standard Chartered Bank report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell on April 8 showed that Standard Chartered expected the NYMEX basis Henry Hub nearby future U.S. natural gas price to average $3.35 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.30 per MMBtu in 2026.
Standard Chartered Bank saw the commodity averaging $3.50 per MMBtu across the second and third quarters of this year, $3.20 per MMBtu across the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026, $3.70 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2026, and $3.50 per MMBtu in the third quarter of next year, according to the report.
by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas