USA EIA Forecasts WTI Oil Price Drop in 2025 and 2026
by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas
In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on February 11, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price average will drop this year and next year.
According to its February STEO, the EIA sees the WTI spot price averaging $70.62 per barrel in 2025 and $62.46 per barrel in 2026. The WTI spot price averaged $76.60 per barrel in 2024, the STEO highlighted.
In its previous STEO, which was released in January, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $70.31 per barrel in 2025 and $62.46 per barrel in 2026. That STEO also highlighted that the 2024 WTI spot price average was $76.60 per barrel.
The EIA’s February STEO forecast that the WTI spot price will come in at $73.62 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $71.00 per barrel in the second quarter, $70.00 per barrel in the third quarter, $68 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $64.97 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $63.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $61.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $60.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
In its January STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $72.34 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $71.00 per barrel in the second quarter, $70.00 per barrel in the third quarter, $68 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $64.97 per barrel in the in the first quarter of 2026, $63.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $61.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $60.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on February 14 showed that J.P. Morgan is forecasting that the WTI crude price will average $69 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2026.
J.P. Morgan expects the WTI crude price to average $70 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $60 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $59 per barrel in the second quarter, $55 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, the research note outlined.
A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell on February 18 showed that Standard Chartered is projecting that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $79 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $81 per barrel in the second quarter, $86 per barrel in the third quarter, $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $88 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, and $90 per barrel in the second quarter of next year.
Standard Chartered projected in that report that the commodity will average $90 per barrel overall in 2026.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on February 14, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, forecast that the front month WTI crude price will average $73 per barrel in 2025.
A Morningstar DBRS report sent to Rigzone by the Morningstar team on February 13 showed that the company’s base case forecasts that the WTI oil price will average $65 per barrel this year and $60 per barrel next year. The company’s “low price/stress case” sees the commodity averaging $45 per barrel across this year and next year, the report outlined.
In a Stratas Advisors report sent to Rigzone by the Stratas team on Monday, the company highlighted that “the price of WTI ended the week at $70.57 [per barrel] after closing the previous week at $71.06 [per barrel]”.
by Andreas Exarheas
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas