USA EIA Raises 2026, 2027 Henry Hub Price Forecasts

by Andreas Exarheas | Rigzone Staff
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its Henry Hub spot price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 in its latest short term energy outlook.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Henry Hub spot price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month.

According to this STEO, the EIA sees the Henry Hub spot price averaging $3.60 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2026 and $3.46 per MMBtu in 2027. In its previous STEO, which was released in May, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $3.50 per MMBtu in 2026 and $3.18 per MMBtu in 2027.

Both STEOs showed that the Henry Hub spot price came in at $3.53 per MMBtu in 2025.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that the Henry Hub spot price will come in at $2.92 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.22 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $3.47 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $3.78 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $2.97 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.34 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.76 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.

In its May STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $2.83 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.08 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $3.31 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $3.43 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $2.82 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.15 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.32 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.

In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that, in May, the Henry Hub spot price averaged $2.94 per MMBtu, which it noted was up 17 cents per MMBtu from April.

“Daily prices edged above $3.00 per MMBtu towards the end of the month, as the season shifted into summer,” the EIA pointed out in its June STEO.

“The slight increase came as higher temperatures began to raise natural gas demand for electricity generation used for cooling, typically the main source of seasonal growth in summer natural gas consumption,” it added.

“These marginal price increases are attributable to steadily rising natural gas demand, which will likely continue into the third quarter of 2026,” it continued.

The EIA highlighted in its June STEO, however, that, “despite expectations of rising demand”, prices are lower in its latest outlook than it had forecast earlier this year.

“We now expect more natural gas will be held in inventory throughout the forecast than we had expected in the January 2026 STEO, largely because we have raised our forecast for natural gas production,” the EIA said in the STEO.

“The price curve retains the same general shape but has been translated vertically downward,” it added.

The EIA highlighted in its STEO that, “with more natural gas in storage”, it has lowered its expectations for Henry Hub prices by $1.13 per MMBtu for 2027, compared with its January STEO.

“Crude oil prices increased significantly in the first half of 2026, and we expect that this will encourage additional oil production, concurrently producing more associated natural gas,” the EIA said.

“With more production, we lowered our price forecast for 2027. We now expect the Henry Hub spot price will average about $3.34 per MMBtu in 2H26 and $3.46 per MMBtu in 2027,” it pointed out.

The EIA highlighted in its June STEO that U.S. marketed natural gas production in its forecast grows by 3.3 percent in 2026, “or about 3.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfpd)”, and by an additional 2.5 percent in 2027.

“We now expect the United States will produce 4.6 Bcfpd more natural gas in 2027 than we were forecasting in our January STEO,” the EIA said.

“This upward revision is almost entirely the result of higher associated natural gas in the Permian region than we had previously expected,” it added.

The EIA noted in its latest STEO that natural gas production growth “is not limited to the Permian” but added that the Permian region “drives most of the increase” between its January and June forecasts.

“We also expect natural gas production growth in the Haynesville region, where production is more directly tied to natural gas prices and demand from U.S. Gulf Coast LNG export facilities,” the EIA said.

“Together, these regions produce enough natural gas to keep inventories above the five-year average and limit upward pressure on Henry Hub prices,” the EIA added.

by Andreas Exarheas | Rigzone Staff
click here to read this article at Rigzone.com
*this article was not written by Roseland Oil & Gas